17 Aug · 06:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇵🇱Adrian Myszewski
ELO 1350
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Myszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1311
FormWWWLL
54%
46%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Myszewski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.63· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H15-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.