17 Aug · 06:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1405
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Baron
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1479
FormWWWLL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Baron
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+74
H2H14-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-13)