17 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1355
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Warpas
AM
🇵🇱Adrian Myszewski
ELO 1350
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.