17 Aug · 08:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1554
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sobel
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1523
FormLLWWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H55-48
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.