17 Aug · 10:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AM
🇵🇱Adrian Myszewski
ELO 1336
FormLLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kotyl
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1389
FormLWWLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Kotyl
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 49% · 2.02· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+53
H2H12-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-10)