17 Aug · 10:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1479
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Niemiec
RN
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1488
FormWWLWW
49%
51%
🌟Niemiec goes over total as favourite 66% (38)
Fair odds · Niemiec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.