17 Aug · 13:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1563
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sobel
SB
🇵🇱Szymon Brud
ELO 1530
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🌟Brud goes over total as underdog 62% (29)
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 41% · 2.44· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.