17 Aug · 16:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SB
🇵🇱Szymon Brud
ELO 1533
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Brud
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1492
FormLWWWW
54%
46%
🌟Brud goes over total as favourite 72% (18)
Fair odds · Brud
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 64% · 1.57· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+41
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.