17 Aug · 19:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1492
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Adamus
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1502
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 81% (21)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 36% · 2.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~81 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.