17 Aug · 20:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1492
FormWLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Oracz
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1552
FormWWLWL
43%
57%
🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 81% (21)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H9-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-4)