17 Aug · 23:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1549
FormWLWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Oracz
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1477
FormWWWLL
58%
42%
🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 94% (16)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 68% · 1.47· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+72
H2H18-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-14)