17 Aug · 22:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1514
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Gumulinski
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1481
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H75-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.