17 Aug · 22:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1492
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Paszkiewicz
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1477
FormWWWLL
52%
48%
🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 94% (16)
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H14-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.