17 Aug · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1340
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1375
FormWLWLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H41-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.