17 Aug · 21:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1549
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Oracz
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1504
FormWLWWW
55%
45%
🌟Adamus goes over total as underdog 65% (57)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H8-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-3)