17 Aug · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1497
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gumulinski
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1514
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 81% (21)
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 48% · 2.10· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H16-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.