18 Aug · 01:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1505
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gumulinski
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1498
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
🌟Adamus goes over total as underdog 65% (57)
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.18· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H12-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.