18 Aug · 01:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AB
🇵🇱Aleksander Barton
ELO 1184
FormLLLLL
72%Win chancemodel fair 1.39Staniczek
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1395
FormLLWLL
28%
72%
🌟Barton stays under total as underdog 69% (48)
Fair odds · Staniczek
Model 72% · 1.39vsMarket 74% · 1.35· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 57%Total ~75 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+211
H2H17-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+211)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-4)