18 Aug · 00:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JZ
🇵🇱Jacek Zelezik
ELO 1638
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1665
FormWLWWW
47%
53%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 66% (56)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H20-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.