18 Aug · 00:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1473
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Adamus
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1498
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 94% (16)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 48% · 2.09· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.