18 Aug · 00:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1364
FormWLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kowalczyk
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1295
FormLLWWW
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Piecowski🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 90% (21)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H2-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)