18 Aug · 02:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1505
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Oracz
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1544
FormLWWLW
46%
54%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.05· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H16-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.