18 Aug · 01:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1544
FormLWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Oracz
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1491
FormWLWLL
56%
44%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 70% · 1.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H14-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-8)