18 Aug · 01:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1345
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Trela
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1363
FormLWLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Trela
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.63· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~81 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H30-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.