18 Aug · 01:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MW
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1729
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Warzecha
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1665
FormWLWWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Warzecha
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H25-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-17)