18 Aug · 05:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1498
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Gumulinski
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1495
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 81% (21)
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H16-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.