18 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1341
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Wrobel
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1373
FormLLWLW
46%
54%
🌟Wrobel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (19)
Fair odds · Wrobel
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H13-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.