18 Aug · 08:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SB
🇵🇱Szymon Brud
ELO 1510
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zochniak
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1516
FormWLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Zochniak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (29)
Fair odds · Zochniak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H32-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.