18 Aug · 08:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BM
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1329
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Madej
MR
🇵🇱Maksymilian Rus
ELO 1304
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
🌟Rus rarely covers set handicap as underdog 32% (25)
Fair odds · Madej
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H20-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.