18 Aug · 08:05 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1508
FormLWWWW
64%Win chancemodel fair 1.56Lilien
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1379
FormWLWLW
64%
36%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 64% · 1.56vsMarket 72% · 1.39· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~78 pts
3-1
25%
3-0
23%
3-2
16%
1-3
14%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+129
H2H6-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+129)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-1)