18 Aug · 08:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1552
FormLLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sobel
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1495
FormLLLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H56-48
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (56-48)