18 Aug · 10:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1381
FormLWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Wrobel
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1338
FormLWWLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Wrobel
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H12-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)