18 Aug · 11:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1349
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sikon
BM
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1342
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Sikon
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.