18 Aug · 13:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1526
FormLLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Adamus
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1582
FormLWLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+56
H2H43-35
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (43-35)