18 Aug · 22:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1313
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skorski
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1321
FormLLWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H7-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.