18 Aug · 21:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1609
FormWLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Tkocz
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1542
FormWWWLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H14-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-8)