18 Aug · 21:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1516
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1544
FormWWWLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H25-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.