18 Aug · 23:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1303
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Eliasz
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1313
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Eliasz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H12-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.