18 Aug · 23:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1321
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1360
FormWWLLW
46%
54%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 43% · 2.32· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H20-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.