18 Aug · 22:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1303
FormWLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1360
FormWWLLW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 42% · 2.39· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H33-34
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)