18 Aug · 22:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1510
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skorupa
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1516
FormLLWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Skorupa
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.