19 Aug · 03:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1569
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lebek
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1491
FormLLLWW
58%
42%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H25-21
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-21)