19 Aug · 03:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1509
FormLLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1567
FormWWWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H25-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-19)