19 Aug · 04:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1506
FormWWLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1576
FormWWWWW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+70
H2H1-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)