19 Aug · 08:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kosowski
ELO 1863
FormWWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kosowski
MJ
🇵🇱Marcin Jadczyk
ELO 1821
FormWLLWW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Kosowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 49% · 2.04· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H48-36
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (48-36)