19 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1349
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lukaszewski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1333
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
🌟Lukaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H10-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.