19 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JG
🇵🇱Jakub Glanowski
ELO 1521
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Glanowski
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1511
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
🌟Glanowski stays under total as favourite 64% (25)
Fair odds · Glanowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.34· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H51-55
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.