19 Aug · 07:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MZ
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1254
FormLLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Sulkowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1333
FormWLLLL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.63· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+79
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)