19 Aug · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1454
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Gajda
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1391
FormWLWLL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Gajda
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H11-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-8)