19 Aug · 09:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1514
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Minda
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1486
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 52% · 1.91· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H67-69
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.